Showing posts with label Innovation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Innovation. Show all posts

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Strata Conference

The O'Reilly Strata Conference NYC has now finished and I have to say it was a blast. The standard of speakers, corridor chat and the general environment was exceptionally high. If you're interested in speaking, they've already opened up the request for proposals for the Feb'12 event, so get writing.

There was something magical about the event in NYC created by a convergence of people, technology and ideas. I haven't seen a conference with this much buzz and excitement since ETech. You can guess that I was truly impressed, it was O'Reilly at its finest and that's a tall order given the very high standard of their conferences. If you missed the conference, then you can find many videos from the event on the O'Reilly channel.

I was also fortunate enough to be asked to speak, the video of my talk is below. In my session I covered commoditisation, innovation and the role of big data by examining some of my new research into the evolution of organisations. As per normal, the title of the talk is my usual Situation Normal, Everything Must Change and the talk itself is different from any other previous example i.e. the title applies to the talk itself.

By the way, if you have enjoyed my talks and you're interested in helping out with my research then please take 20 minutes to complete my online survey, as that would be really appreciated.

OSCON 2010: "Situation Normal, Everything Must Change"

Monday, August 29, 2011

The abuse of innovation.

Innovation is a term which is widely abused and this abuse prevents us from seeing patterns in how business activities evolve.

It is difficult to see what changes when everything is called an innovation in the same manner that it's difficult to see the difference between commodification (assignment of economic value) vs commoditisation (shift from imperfect to perfect undifferentiated competition) because of the catch-all nature of the term commodification (i.e. it's used to mean both).

Take for example the utility provision of computing infrastructure (as per Amazon) - is it an innovation?

When it comes to computing infrastructure, the innovation of modern computing probably started with the Z3 in 1941. This act of innovation created an entirely new class of activity - computing infrastructure - which has evolved over time through various stages with custom built examples (LEO etc), products (IBM 650 and onwards) and eventually led to commodity and utility provision. For reference, the full cycle is innovation, custom built, product (with rental services) and commodity (with utility services).

Two things should be noted, firstly that the pathway of evolution is common for activities (and knowledge) though it's not a time based sequence. Secondly, the innovation of the Z3 created a new class of activity rather than evolved an existing class (as with the first phone, the first radio, the first ...)

When it comes to the shift from products to utility, this simply represents an evolution of an activity and not the creation of a new form i.e. infrastructure existed before Amazon. However, it is perfectly true to say that this evolution enables (through creative destruction) and accelerates (through componentisation) the innovation of higher order systems i.e. as infrastructure has evolved we've seen an explosion of innovation in big data, mash-ups etc. This is perfectly normal as commoditisation (the common term used to describe this evolution) creates a cycle with innovation.

So, we have a difference between innovation of a new activity and evolution of an existing activity - both of which we unfortunately call innovation.

To complicate matters there's also the consumer and provider perspective. Whilst electricity is a commodity provided through utility services to consumers, behind the interface (the plug) has been a world of innovation of novel activities (wind farms, solar power, geothermal etc) aiming to create some form of operational advantage. However, it is worth noting that this provider innovation doesn't suddenly turn a consumer commodity into an innovation.

Finally we have terms like sustaining and disruptive innovation. As an activity evolves, in many cases changes to the activity (such as feature differentiation in the product stage) are sustaining and occasionally they are disruptive.

When an activity evolves across a boundary i.e. shifts from products to utility services (as with cloud) then this shift is generally disruptive because the incumbents have huge inertia to the change caused by their past success in the previous stage of evolution (i.e. product or rental vendors).

So the pattern we have is :-
  1. Innovation of a genuinely new activity which is distinct from the evolution it enables.
  2. Evolution of an activity to custom-built, product (rental) to commodity (utility services). This process is commonly called commoditisation.
  3. Sustaining changes dominating within domains (i.e. product)
  4. Disruptive changes dominating between domains causing a discontinuity with the past (i.e. product to utility services)
  5. Enablement and acceleration of the innovation of higher order systems through commoditisation of lower order subsystems (i.e. creative destruction and componentisation)
  6. A difference between consumer and provider perspective.
Now, the problem with the abuse of the term innovation is we end up with :-
  1. Breakthrough Innovation
  2. Feature, Product and Service Innovation
  3. Sustaining Innovation
  4. Disruptive Innovation
  5. Loads of Innovation (paradigm shift etc)
  6. It's my product, of course it's an Innovation ...
We normally shorten this to Innovation, Innovation, Innovation, Innovation, Innovation and Innovation.

Or in other words Innovation.

You have no hope with spotting the pattern under such circumstances and it's no wonder that people get confused with this subject. This has severe impacts on management practices but that's a post for another day.

As for Amazon's EC2, it represents an evolution of an existing activity which is disruptive, will enable breakthrough innovation of higher order systems and for the provider has probably involved a mix of different types of innovative pursuits in operations.

I hate to give up on words, however "innovation" has become so widely abused as to be meaningless. For the future I'm tempted to use the word "Genesis" to describe the creation of a new activity and to put "innovation" in my book of pointless words along with "Cloud" etc.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Hosting Con Keynote

I was very fortunate to be asked to give the opening keynote at Hosting Con 2011 covering commoditisation, business evolution, leadership and what the various tactical plays in the cloud computing space mean to hosting companies. The audience was fantastic, I had a great time and despite using excessive numbers of slides, no-one was hurt in the process.

Continuing on the theme from my OSCON tutorial, I've uploaded a summary set of slides which are highly condensed but give a taster to what we covered.

Alas, there's no video and as per usual I'm six years into writing my book and around 30% of the way there. The subject matter keeps on giving me more areas of interest to explore, so don't hold your breath for me to finish any time soon.

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

OSCON Tutorial

I gave a three hour tutorial at OSCON on innovation, commoditisation, business evolution, organisation, leadership and various tactical plays in the cloud computing space. The talk was a blast, I really enjoyed it and judging by the feedback it hit some home runs with many of the audience.

However, the presentation is 1,041 slides long and so - I'm not uploading that or creating a video. Instead I've made a summary presentation which covers the main points.

Be warned, it's highly condensed.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Open source as a tactical weapon, VMware's latest move.

All business activities evolve through a common lifecycle and we're currently witnessing a shift of many IT related activities from a product to a utility service world. This is commonly referred to as "the cloud". This transition brings benefits, risks, different methods of operating but also impacts the tactical plays in the great skirmish between companies. There are two models of tactical play which are particularly noteworthy - ILC and Tower & Moat.

In my previous LEF post, I discussed the innovate, leverage and commoditise (ILC) model that seems to be naturally appearing in companies such as Salesforce. To summarize, it is a technique by which a company uses a surrounding ecosystem to not only reduce the cost of innovation but to encourage innovation and rapidly identify success. By acquiring and providing such innovations as common services, a virtuous circle can be created.

A second model is the tower and moat. The principle here is to defend a revenue stream (the tower) by creating a moat devoid of differential value with high barriers to entry around it. By way of example, Salesforce created its own tower around provision of CRM as a utility service in a world where CRM was generally provided through customisable products or rental services. As barriers to entry into this new field were eroded (i.e. Amazon enabling widespread access to utility infrastructure) then new barriers were created through the acquisition of platform technology.

Whilst product based competitors attempt to differentiate themselves with activities such as social CRM, Salesforce acquired such activities with the view of providing common services. The net effect is this eliminates the differential value of social CRM and helps establish a moat. Salesforce has been extensively using its ecosystem (an ILC model) to identify and acquire a wide range of potential differentials and further strengthen its moat.

When competitors finally move to a cloud model then they will find the space inhabited by a large player with a large ecosystem and few opportunities to differentiate - a reasonably fatal combination. Both ILC and the Tower & Moat model are powerful tools which can also be used to counter competitors. They can be used together, or individually or combined with other tactical plays such as open source.

Take the case of Apple vs Android : whilst the iPhone is not one activity but a device describing many activities, Google has effectively created an ecosystem around Android which provides a means of identifying and accelerating innovation in this field whilst reducing costs. By providing the system as open source and creating a hardware ecosystem, then Android has effectively removed much of the differential value that Apple might have sort. Apple would appear to have been pushed into a high risk, stand alone innovation game against a broad ecosystem.

Take the case of cloud infrastructure : we've already seen Rackspace & NASA move to create open source software - the OpenStack project - to provide infrastructure as a service. Their vision is to create a competitive marketplace of computer utilities around OpenStack. Such a world plays to Rackspace's strength of service delivery as a utility provider but also fits with NASA's goals of increasing efficiency of infrastructure. The ecosystem around openstack should encourage rapid innovation and if successful will create the standard that a competitive marketplace depends upon. It will also drive out differential value in this space making it tough for new competitors or those with a proprietary offering. I say 'should' and 'if' because I have real concerns over the differentiation from Amazon idea.

Take the case of large scale infrastructure: into which Facebook has announced the OpenCompute project and in effect open sourced how to create large scale data centres. This should over time help eliminate differential value that such knowledge created and whilst beneficial to the future computer utility world it will also help to undermine those for whom such skills have acted as a barrier to entry into their industry - namely massive scale search engines and data processors.

Take the case of healthcare: which has seen the VA (Veterans' Association) create an open source electronic health record system from VistA. It seems clear that the VA are focused on encouraging innovation through ecosystem effects and creating a marketplace of competitive providers. Visions of a worldwide standard are not beyond the realm of reason.

Take the case of platform as service into which VMware has announced an integrated set of open source platform components known as CloudFoundry. If successful and there's every reason to believe it will be then VMware will succeed in creating a huge moat devoid of differential value in the platform space and a vast ecosystem driving this. Any would be competitors will face an uphill struggle to compete against VMware's effort. Those planning proprietary platform offerings should take note of this move.

But wait ... where's the tower?

The beauty of creating a competitive marketplace of utility service providers is that it opens up a huge range of opportunities from service provider, support, assurance, brokerage, exchange, marketplace and a dozen more. Being at the heart of this, which is where VMware will be, means they are well positioned to take advantage. It's a bold move, perfectly timed and well executed.

Of course, CloudFoundry has already been made to run on Amazon EC2 which means CloudFoundry on OpenStack built on an environment designed around OpenCompute can't be far behind.

The world of IT is changing and many IT activities have become suitable for provision through utility services. With this change comes tactical plays designed to take advantage of this shift. At the OSCON conference in July 2007, I stated that in this future utility world open source was the only way of effectively competing. Time will tell but the increasing drive towards open source and its use by major companies as a tactical weapon seems to be pointing that way.

Smart move by VMware, it'll certainly shake up the industry.

--- Update 5th May 2014

Most is proceeding as expected. Bizarrely SAP / Oracle just seem to be waking upto the threats ... a bit too late. Unfortunately also OpenStack continued its differentiation play and the market never formed. Cloud Foundry however is storming ahead. Apple is starting to look weak vesus Android whilst OpenCompute gathers momentum.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Ecosystem wars

Back in 2005, I started to talk publicly about lifecycle concepts and the importance of ecosystems. In the next two posts, I'd like to draw a line in the sand and cover those basics of ecosystem one last final time.

I'll take the liberty of assuming notions such as lifecycle, organisational profile, componentisation and consumerization are universally understood and start with an explication of what a business is.

What is a Business?
A business is a living thing, comprising a network of people, a mass of different activities, and reserves of capital including financial, physical, human and social. It consumes, it produces, it grows and it dies. Like all organisms, any business exists within a number of ecosystems in which it competes and co-operates with others; it’s shaped by and shapes its environment, and hence needs to adapt constantly merely to survive.

People come and go, activities change, and hence all firms are in a constant state of flux. In any industrial ecosystem, new activities (innovations) are a consequence of competition and those that are useful will diffuse throughout the ecosystem becoming more of a commodity. This constant change creates a paradox, identified by Salaman and Storey:

”Survival requires efficient exploration of current competencies and ‘coherence, coordination and stability’; whereas innovation requires discovery and development of new competencies and this requires the loosening and replacement of these erstwhile virtues.”

These two extremes of survival (today and tomorrow) have diametrically opposite concerns, and the techniques, tactics and methods needed to manage each are entirely different. Those who manage organizations are therefore caught on the twin horns of a dilemma: how is it possible to be standardized and efficient as well as innovative and new, without prejudicing your survival - either today or tomorrow?

The effects of this on business can be seen in the constant restructuring to cope with new paradigms, and in the yo-yoing of popular management theories between opposites in a scramble to maintain order. A more effective balance can be found through embracing both goals simultaneously.

How do we balance both goals?
This requires a rethinking of how we organize, and a realization that what really matters is not innovation or efficiency per se, but how we continuously manage the path between the two. To explain why this is the case, let us examine a typical profile of an organisation (see figure 1) and consider how we build systems for the future.

Figure 1 - Using profile to build systems (click on image for higher resolution)


First, let us take those cost of doing business activities which act as underlying components of other business activities such as payroll, computer infrastructure, authentication etc. All of these activities are linear, well defined, ubiquitous and suitable for provision as standard re-usable components through utility services. Such an approach will increase our agility, rate of innovation (componentisation effects) and reduce the cost of gambling for any innovative activities built upon these utility services.

However, it is important to understand that all innovations (i.e. those activities which are uncertain and rare) are a gamble and whilst we can reduce costs we can never eliminate it. The future value of something is inversely proportional to the certainty we have over it, we cannot avoid this information barrier any more than we can reliably predict the future. However, there is a means to maximise our advantage.

By making these utility services accessible through APIs, we not only benefit ourselves but we can open up these components to a wider ecosystem. If we can encourage innovation in that wider ecosystem then we do not incur the cost of gambling & failure for those new activities. Unfortunately, we do not enjoy the rewards of their success either
.
Fortunately, the ecosystem provides an early warning mechanism of success i.e. adoption. Hence by creating a large enough ecosystem, we can not only encourage a rapid rate of innovation but also leverage that ecosystem to identify success and then either copy (a weak ecosystem approach) or acquire (a strong ecosystem approach) that activity. This is how we maximise our advantage.

To capitalise on this, we simply drive our newly acquired activity towards utility service provision and create the next wave of innovation through further componentisation effects. In this manner we create a virtuous circle of encouraging innovation in the ecosystem, leveraging the ecosystem to identify the next pattern and commoditising the pattern to utility services in order to encourage the next wave.

In effect, by being at the heart of this ecosystem we manage to create the simultaneous appearance of being highly innovative (as others in the ecosystem do this for us), highly customer focused (by leveraging the ecosystem to identify rapid diffusion) and highly efficient (as we focus on commodity provision). Tom Peter's old adage of choose one is a busted flush in this brave new world.

I've summarised these concepts in figure 2

Figure 2 - ILC model (click on image for higher resolution)


What is critically important to note, is that in essence both innovation of new activities and efficiency of commodity provision can be outsourced. The innovation of activities can be outsourced to a surrounding ecosystem building upon our services, whilst those commodity activities we consume can be outsourced to a marketplace of utility providers. There are benefits to retaining some element of control in those areas but the critical area to focus on is the transitional phase and how you leverage the ecosystem. Our ability to exploit the link between innovation and commodity depends upon the size, composition, engagement, speed of information and overall level of activity within that ecosystem.

Whilst each company comes with its own personal ecosystem (its staff, its partners) growing an extended ecosystem and using that to manage change is a powerful tool and a competitive weapon. It's not businesses but ecosystems that collide in the commercial world and woe betide that organisation which has the weaker. We've seen this story repeated many times before at many different levels through all the usual examples of BetaMax vs VHS or TCP/IP vs IPX/SPX.

It's imperative to understand that a well formed and large ecosystem leads to lower costs of innovation, creates higher rates of innovation, improves the rates of successful adoption, encourages greater efficiencies and can be mined to detect future successes. However, there are cost to this especially in the form of data collection which is why utility based ecosystems (where information is derived from consumption of APIs) have an advantage over product based ecosystems (where information is derived from market research). 

If it is just you and your employees then you'll find it difficult to survive a direct onslaught from any of the modern day monsters with well developed and extended API driven ecosystems (such as Google, Amazon etc). Not impossible, just damn difficult.

For more details, my OSCON '10 talk provides a useful overview of these concepts. However this is enough of a base to begin with.

In the next few posts, I'll cover some of the consequences of this and the strategies which are commonly deployed. Again, I realise this is nothing new and apologies to all readers who've had to endure me harping on about this over the last five years but I'm just scene setting for much later posts.

Monday, July 26, 2010

OSCON 2010

I thoroughly enjoyed the OSCON cloud summit and the talk that I gave at OSCON - the audiences were fantastic and the organisation was superb (huge thanks to Edd, Allison and the O'Reilly crew for making this happen).

I'm really proud to have played my small part in this event as the MC for day, along with John Willis.

I haven't yet talked a great deal on my research, but the keynote at OSCON gives a taste of it - so I thought I'd link to it here. Those who know me, also know that this had been a hobby horse of mine over the last decade. It's finally good to spend some focused time on it though of course these ideas are far from new.

A couple of final notes :-

  • Utility services are just a domain within the commodity phase of an activity's evolution. There are constraints which will prevent a commodity being provided through services. I sometimes plot on the graph a wider "services" stage, however for the sake of simplicity I've left this out.
  • The stages of lifecycle are approximate only i.e. this is where products appear, this is where utility services generally appear etc.
  • Multiple activities can be bundled into a single product. For example the iPhone is a combination of different activities from personal communication to digital recorder to web surfing to time keeper to ... the list is quite long. These activities are all evolving and being implemented by others, which forces Apple to focus on two areas :- the bundling of new innovative activities into the iPhone and application innovation through the App Store. The former is expensive and risky. The later requires development of a strong ecosystem, ideally with users being allowed to create and distribute their own applications. The manner in which Apple manages this is less than ideal and they now face severe disruption from Android. As there is also little exploitation of the wider manufacturers' ecosystem, Apple has cornered itself into creating highly costly & risky innovations with weak leveraging. IMHO, they are in trouble and this should become painfully clear in the next five years unless they change.
  • The ILC model is generally applicable. I picked examples from cloud providers but equally I could have discussed Canonical with Ubuntu. Canonical ruthlessly commoditises activities to provide a stable core and I'd strongly argue that Rackspace & Canonical point to the future direction of IT.
  • Open source is the natural end state for any activity described by software which is ubiquitous and well defined. This doesn't mean that open source can't be used earlier, of course it can and there are numerous tactical advantages of doing so, along with benefits such as increased collaboration. However, what I am saying is that by the time an activity has reached the commodity phase then only open source makes sense. Those who have been questioning whether "cloud is the death of open source" have a poor understanding as to what is actually happening.
  • Open core is in general a tactical anomaly. On the one hand, if successful, it will cause widespread distribution (driving an activity towards more of a commodity) and yet it attempts to generate revenue through proprietary elements which is against the natural state that open core is forcing activities towards. A number of companies have used this approach successfully and have even been bought for huge sums by large companies. However, it still remains a tactical anomaly which attempts to achieve both the benefits of open and closed by being both.
  • The S-Curves I use are not time based. If you follow the evolution of an activity through specific phases of its lifecycle and plot adoption against time, you will derive a set of non-uniform S-Curves for Roger's diffusion of innovation. It's important to realise that the accelerators I mentioned (open source, participation, network effects) along with others I didn't mention (communication mechanisms, co-evolution etc) alter the speed at which an activity evolves. Whilst, this doesn't impact the S-Curves I use, it does compact Roger's curves of more recent innovations when compared to earlier diffusions.
  • The speed at which an activity moves across the profile graph (i.e. through its lifecycle) depends upon the activity.
  • None of these ideas are new. The nearest to new is company profile which I've been refining in the last year from earlier work (between '04-'07) and this refinement is simply a formalisation of already existing concepts. If you watched the video and thought, "that's new", then my only advice is be concerned.
  • On the question of science, the models presented (S-Curve, Profile) are part of a general hypothesis on the evolution of business activities. Whilst data exists, there is neither the volume of evidence nor independent observation to validate beyond this. Furthermore, whilst the models show some usefulness and can be falsified, they are not predictive (and hence this cannot be considered scientific but remains firmly within the field of philosophy). The reason for this is that in order to generate the graphs and avoid asymptotic behaviour, a definition of commodity is required. The consequence of such is that an activity can only be plotted in terms of relative historical position i.e. after it has become a commodity. This means, all positions of activities which have not become a commodity are uncertain (as per one of the axis of the graph) and therefore approximations. The models do not create a crystal ball and the future is one information barrier we can't get past. Even though the new pattens of organisation are testable it should always be remembered that fitness does not guarantee survival.

That's enough for now, I'll expand the topic sometime later.

Monday, November 30, 2009

The U.S. Patent system makes me laugh ...

It seems that Microsoft is seeking a patent for data migration in the cloud, something which we provided in Zimki back in 2007 and had been publicly talked about by various people for many years before that (though in those days it was called utility computing).

Well, at least the patent adds more weight to the idea that when Azure launches, it will be with a variety of ISP's, a buy your own Azure container and I'd hazard a guess at the illusion of an open marketplace based upon open standards.

The battle for Helms Deep approaches.

As for the U.S patent system, well I would normally argue that patents should be "limited in duration to a timeframe in which society could be reasonably expected to independently create such an innovation" - except of course I'm from the U.K. where we already have more robust view on patenting software.

So please, by all means keep on hampering your technology sector and turn it into a legal quagmire. I'm obviously hoping that the U.K. won't follow suit.

Lifecycle

For many many years, I've talked about the evolution of activities (from innovation to commodity), how this enables further innovation (componentisation) and why organisations compete in ecosystems (Red Queen Hypothesis). I've also hypothesised an S-Curve of ubiquity vs certainty to describe this evolutionary change, demonstrated techniques to manage such activity life-cycle, shown how Gartner's Hype Cycle can be derived and catalogued the underlying interconnection between Enterprise 2.0, cloud, SOA and web 2.0.

Rather than bore you with the details again, I thought I'd concentrate on a couple of diagrams to explain many of the structural aspects of this.

Figure 1, provides an overview of how activities changes from innovation to commodity, and more importantly how techniques, focus and strategy changes.

Figure 1 - Lifecycle (click on image for higher resolution)


All business activities exists somewhere on this S-Curve and all of them are moving from innovation to commodity. Hence any organisation can be characterised as a network of people interacting with a network of constantly evolving activities, with the organisation itself simply being the intersection between activities and people. You can actually visualise this, though I tend to focus on the network of activities rather than people. By mapping out lines of business against state of evolution, I've found useful tricks for managing activties along with patterns for competing with others.

Learning how to manage activities at their different life-cycle stages and hence knowing how to drive innovation, leverage emerging activities and commoditise that which is cost of doing business is essential for any company. This act is one of balancing the old innovation paradox between survival today (efficiency through co-ordination, coherence & hence order) and survival tomorrow (innovation of new activities, hence deviation, serendipity & disorder).

Since I've often talked about the organisational details of managing life-cycle (the use of pioneers, colonisers and town planners), I thought I'd instead just concentrate on the basic structure. Figure 2 provides the structural elements that are important:-
  • Core services : these are core services that the organisation provides, in the I.T. world this is the area where SOA, cloud and other "service" concepts are most relevant.
  • Ecosystem : this is the ecosystem that an organisation creates around its core services including workforce, partners, community, channels, customers etc.
  • Innovation at "the edge": in general, the larger the ecosystem then the greater the potential for innovation to occur. The concept of innovation at the edge simply refers to expanding the ecosystem as wide as possible.

Figure 2 - Ecosystem (click on image for higher resolution)


In a typical example (e.g. Salesforce & Amazon), the company providing the core services enables and encourages a wider ecosystem to develop around it.

By monitoring new activities (i.e. innovations), and the early adoption of new but similar activities (copying is one of the many signals of success), the company can look to leverage any innovation for the benefit of the wider ecosystem. Methods which can help enable this vary from the provision of an application store to increasing awareness of innovations through the use of Enterprise 2.0 techniques.

By monitoring signals of wider adoption (i.e ubiquity) and early formation of standards (increased definition and certainty of the activity), the company can elect to drive an activity towards commoditisation and provision as a core service. This correspondingly completes the circle and encourages further innovation in the ecosystem through componentisation.

Quite simply put, the structure is simply designed to feed off and accelerate the normal process of evolution of activities (technical or otherwise). This results in a situation where apparent innovation (others are innovating for you), customer focus (leveraging of consumption data to deliver what people want) and efficiency (economies of scale) can all increase with the size of the ecosystem.

I mention this because the centralist approach is to provide all activities at the centre as opposed to "crowdsourcing" both creation and identification of innovation to a wider ecosystem built around a core of common services. Whilst centralisation is not an invalid approach, it is generally highly ineffective when competing against a company which creates a broad ecosystem. This is shown in figure 3.

Figure 3 - Competitive Landscape (click on image for higher resolution)

So with this in mind, I turn to the U.K. Government cloud efforts. It's worth remembering that the U.K. Gov I.T. currently employs over 35,000 people and outsources nearly 65% of its budget (from a total figure of £16bn+). This pretty much makes the internal part of U.K. Gov I.T. equivalent to Google PLUS Amazon whist the outsourcing part is far bigger.

The approach of providing standardised & centralised core services for commodity activities (such as computing infrastructure) is fine. However, as there is no actual competitive utility computing market, an approach of outsourcing to a group of vendors would be unwise (it's worth noting that both Google & Amazon adopted to build in-house). Fortunately, one set of standards - EC2 & S3 - are emerging.

Given this, a sensible strategy would be to adopt these emerging standards, consume conforming external services and where needed build using an open sourced technology (there are several to choose from, Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud would be one). Design for a mix of private / public (hybrid) with a near future view of using multiple public providers.  Develop any needed new elements in-house whilst outsourcing standard components i.e. data centre floor space, power provision etc.

The second area of concern is the Government Application Store. Whilst providing a centralised mechanism of application fulfillment is a sensible approach, the concern should be how those application are developed and provided to the store. Whilst some applications have become commoditised enough to be provided as centrally managed applications or services, it is absolutely essential that the application store should encourage a wider ecosystem (especially at local government level and within communities) for the development of new applications.

A fairly sound approach would be to combine the above with mechanisms of ecosystem monitoring and encouragement for the wider adoption of successful activities. An alternative centralist nightmare, would be where the core (i.e. some form of centralised council) attempts to predict the future whilst defining and developing activities to be adopted (a dis-functional programme management approach). This will lead to the normal flurry of massive development costs, vendor dependency and lock-in.

So why should I care? Well, I live in the U.K. and our Government exists in a wider competitive ecosystem of national governments. The role of U.K. Gov I.T. is to get this stuff right, the same with any other Government.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Why cloud vendors lie ...

I was a last minute speaker on IPExpo's schedule last week. Despite a severe bout of speakers nerves, the talk went well. Unfortunately, it wasn't recorded and hence I've made my own video.

Why Cloud vendors lie and how they steal your money
(approx. 43 mins)

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Innovation Management in tweets ...

  • Many people mix up the terms invention, idea and innovation.

  • Innovation is the first(ish) attempt to put an idea into practice. You can manage the process of implementation.

  • Ideas are postulated entities and concepts derived from invention and discovery. You can create an environment to encourage ideas.

  • You can encourage and manage some aspects of innovation but the real trick is finding out which idea is going to be valuable.

  • There is an inverse relationship between the future value of an activity and how certain we are about this.

  • We don't know which ideas will be successful - we have to take a guess and often we will fail in our guesses.

  • Innovation management is a mix of management, encouragement, guess work and embracing failure.

Friday, February 13, 2009

It's all about new technology .... NOT!

I was recently asked to explain the difference between "cloud" computing and the earlier attempts to create an ASP (application service provider) industry. Is it just down to new technology? To understand the difference, we first need to get to grips with some of the fundamentals of change and what cloud computing is.

The fundamental forces behind change
Back in the 1990s, Paul Strassmann demonstrated that there was no link between IT spending and business value. Whilst there has been some argument over the validity of the research, Strassmann’s work created an idea which rapidly spread. This idea was that not all IT is the same, not all IT has value and some IT has commoditised.

However, what is commoditisation?

In its simplest terms, commoditisation (as opposed to commodification) is a neologism which describes how a rare and poorly understood innovation becomes well defined and ubiquitous in the eyes of the consumer. In other words, it’s a transition that describes how a once rare, exciting and new activity (an innovation) becomes commonplace, bland and standardised (more of a commodity).

The most often quoted example of commoditisation is the electricity industry and how this innovation led to the formation of national grids in the 1930s. Today, to most consumers, electricity is something you get from a plug and few companies describe their use of electricity as a source of innovation or a competitive advantage.

Whilst the journey from innovation to commodity has numerous stages (for example bespoke, product and services), this represents a continuous but hazardous transition of an activity to more ubiquity and better definition. There are numerous factors controlling the transition but for brevity I'll simply state that not all activities will commoditise, some have physical, social and other constraints. In figure 1, I've plotted business activities against axis of ubiquity (how common something is) and certainty (how well defined and understood something is).

Ubiquity vs Certainty for TVs, Telephones and VCRs.
(click on image for larger size)




The data is derived from the TV, Radio and Phone industries however it suggests that an S-Curve relationship between the ubiquity and certainty of an activity exists. The graph shows a path for how a rare and poorly understood innovation becomes a common and well defined commodity.

All business activities are somewhere on that curve and all of them are moving, commoditisation never stops and IT activities are no exception. Figure 2 provides a hypothetical example of the activities within a business.

Representation of activities in a business
(click on image for larger size)



This graph is a representation and the highlighted points are not real data. The real path can only be determined after an activity has reached a certain level of commoditisation (in other words, I can't predict the future). You can however use pretty good expert reviews but that's another topic for another day. Since all the activities are connected, you can also expand this graph by looking at the linkages between components and how commoditised they are but that's also another topic for another day. I do however want to note that the journey of an innovation to ubiquity is not an easy one and some of the changes can be disruptive to an existing industry. This is especially true as any activity moves from the product to services stage of its journey.

Such a disruptive change is occurring in IT today. A quick glance at the current list of hot terms brings up subjects such as service oriented architecture, web services and mashing up services. All of these contain a strong service theme. The computing stack, which again for brevity I’ll characterise into three layers of application, platform and infrastructure is slowly shifting away from products towards standard components provided as internet services.

The last thing to note is that you have no choice when it comes to commoditisation. If you treat an activity as an innovation whilst everyone else uses standard services, then the only thing you are likely to create is a competitive disadvantage for yourself. This is why any company needs to continuously adapt to changes in the surrounding market just in order to retain its competitive position (the Red Queen Hypothesis).

In general, commoditisation is a continual process that can be be highly disruptive. You have to continuously adapt to this change and it is happening in IT today.

What is cloud computing?
Certain IT activities have become so common and so well defined that they are now suitable for service provision through volume operations. This is not confined to one particular layer of the computing stack but across all layers. This transition has given rises to the “as a Service” industry which includes :-
  • Infrastructure (or Hardware) as a Service providers such as Amazon and FlexiScale.
  • Platform (or Framework) as a Service providers like Ning, BungeeLabs and CogHead.
  • Application (or Software) as Service providers like Salesforce, Zoho and Google Apps.
Supporting this transition is a range of technologies from clustering to virtualisation. In essence these have provided effective means of balancing the supply of computing resources to match the demand, a necessity for volume operations.

Whilst the concept of providing of computing resources through utility-like service providers dates back to John McCarthy in the 1960s, this idea began to sink into the fog of history shortly after. It resurfaced in the 1990s as it became the fashion to think of IT development as a factory-like process with standard components which could be plugged together to create new applications. With the development of  the internet,  a resurgence of interest in the concepts of utility-like service provision began. Unfortunately, many early attempts  were unsuccessful as they tried to apply such methods to activities that lacked both ubiquity and definition.  Increasingly as areas of IT have become common they have become more suitable for outsourcing to such providers. Managed hosting providers led this second wave of change and the new breed of volume operations specialists such as Amazon are leading this third wave.

In general the concepts of utility computing, this disruptive transition of the computing stack from a product to a service based economy, the growth of a new breed of volume operation specialists (the as a Service industry) and the underlying technologies supporting this change have been grouped together under the heading of cloud computing.

So how about ASP?
Well, ASP is part of the same overall process but as I said earlier many of the attempts focused on activities that were neither ubiquitous nor defined enough for such a volume operations approach. Others were more a a rental model for products. Today, this has changed. Cloud computing has less to do with a technological change and more to do with an environmental change in the wider IT economy.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Busy, Busy ...

The last two weeks have been extremely busy for me. Along with working on the business case and funding for an interactive book company, I've started a new job and been a co-chair of a major London conference.

So in quick order ...

The interactive book company is Amphilab (I now work as an advisor having finished an initial three month stint). The company produces books with printed electronics. Let me just note one thing, these are not one page e-readers BUT real BOOKS with real paper pages which interact with computers. So it's old fashioned paper and ink (which we all love) AND turning pages (which we all love) PLUS text that interacts with computers & mobiles. We've already got a book deal and I'm now helping Manolis look for some funding that he needs.

I've also started a new job with Canonical as the software services manager. This role combines my passion for cloud computing & open source and puts it to good use for a great company. I know I was not intending to do any more work in the cloud computing space but then I met Mark and the Canonical team. It's a great place with great people - life just seems to be getting better and better.

Lastly, I've just finished co-chairing the Future of Web Apps (FOWA) conference. It was an absolute blast with some great talks by people like Kevin Marks, Gavin Bell, Suw Charman-Anderson, Julie Meyers, Ben Huh and the list goes on. The crowd was amazing, the venue excellent and Carsonified put on a grand show for everyone. Brilliant.

P.S. I've linked to my FOWA talk below. I know that I haven't yet created a video for my "Gang up now before the *aaS cloud gets you" talk at CloudCamp, London - I'll get around to it soon.

P.P.S. I'm also still writing, speaking, doing some ad-hoc work, building a bio-reactor and I'm in the process of moving home!

FOWA Talk - Innovation, the future and why nothing is ever simple.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Definitions ...

The first problem you encounter with any study on the processes behind innovation is almost always with the definition of innovation itself. This is not a unique problem but general to any emerging topic which is poorly understood.

This problem becomes acute when the subject transitions from being a new field to becoming hot, as many people try to make their mark on the subject. I'm not saying this is wrong, discussion and debate are always necessary but a consequence of tis debate is always a period of temporary confusion and a multitude of definitions. Eventually, agreed definitions will emerge and the topic matter will be well on the way to becoming more humdrum.

An example of this includes the *OA and *aaS debates over what actually constitutes a service and what acronyms should be used.

Unfortunately, whilst entertaining, this maelstrom of noise can sometimes bury simple underlying concepts. For example, the *aaS debates are fundamentally about the shift of the software stack from a product to a service based economy and the *OA debates are about higher orders of componentisation and consequential new architectures (abstract concepts in themselves).

Of course, this is my view and therefore is just as likely to be as wrong as everyone else's.

Whilst I use concepts such as radical, incremental, disruptive and breakthrough to describe various forms of innovation, I do like to start at the beginning when it comes to definitions. Hence over the next few months I'm going to write a number of posts based upon a few simple definitions for invention, ideas and innovation. I'll use these to describe the process of innovation and its connection to commoditisation and open source.

My starting points are :-

Discovery and Invention are processes that result in the generation of new concepts or newly created devices or postulated entities. Both of these processes involve serendipity, questioning and the use of analogy. Invention and discovery are fraught subjects and it is often very difficult to identify the origin of any invention or discovery.

Idea is an image or a concept or abstraction. At any moment in time in our society, there are a large number of new ideas which have no economic value and are external to the market system as they have not yet been put into practice. Ideas are normally derived from discovery or invention, though the process is cyclical and complex.

Innovation is the first attempt to carry out an idea into practice; it is the embodiment, combination, or synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant or new products, processes or services. Innovation is neither an idea, an invention nor a discovery but a consequence of these. Any invention can lead to a number of separate innovations depending upon what ideas are created and subsequently implemented. Innovations can be classified using the concepts of incremental, radical, breakthrough and disruptive however the mechanism of how they spread and whether they are successful does not determine whether something is an innovation or not.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Time to let go of the brake ...

I've just been reading on Patently-0 about the following PTO (Patent and Trademarks Office) position on software patents which threatens to invalidate many and perhaps most software patents.

The basis of the argument is that process inventions generally are unpatentable unless they “result in a physical transformation of an article” or are “tied to a particular machine”. The counter argument is that these processes are tied to a computer which is a particular machine. Unfortunately for those with this argument, it seems the PTO does not consider a general purpose computer as a particular machine.

Now for patent trolls this could be a nightmare. For innovation in a society this could create a positive boom. Patents have always been an exchange between information and the right of monopoly, with the overall goal of boosting the rate of innovation in a society. The major issue with patents has been when the length of term of the monopoly has exceeded the likely time of independent discovery in society. In such circumstances patents act as a brake on the rate of innovation and not an accelerator to it.

Ideally, the length of term of a patent should be set to just slightly more than the likely time of independent discovery. This would result in a more equitable but complex system. The current system of one size fits all creates some gross distortions.

The most obvious example of this is in the software industry, where the rate of innovation and independent discovery vastly exceeds the length of term of patents. Ditching the patent system in software is more likely than not to boost the rate of innovation and it is more in keeping with the original goals of the patent system.

Monday, June 23, 2008

From Web 2.0 to Enterprise 2.0

This is a recreation of my talk from the Enterprise 2.0 conference in Milan (June 2008).

During the talk I examined the concepts of web 2.0, enterprise 2.0 and the forces behind change. The talk links together a number of topics from componentisation, software as a service, participation, network effects, innovation and commoditisation into a single theme (most of this stuff is old hat for those who have seen any of my presentations over the last few years).

The video covers in very simple and general terms:-

  • What is commoditisation?
  • What is innovation?
  • Why is web 2.0 important?
  • Why is web 2.0 important now?
  • Why is enterprise 2.0 important?
  • Some basic lessons on managing enterprise 2.0.

From Web 2.0 to Enterprise 2.0 (50 mins approx)

Sunday, June 22, 2008

The Age of Innovation ... oh no it isn't .... oh yes it is ...

Following on from a less than enlightened discussion about age and innovation, I've decided to put down the basic tenets of the argument in a graphical form (click on each image for a larger view).


Part I - the opening question




Part II - challenging beliefs



I'm slowing coming to the conclusion that I've found the "Hazard" age group.

Sunday, June 01, 2008

Know yourself ....

Every year I speak at numerous conferences to thousands of people and yet I often suffer from self doubt.

The reason why I suffer so, is because I hate failure and whilst I might have succeeded at many things, I have also failed many times. Each failure is a tiny cut in my memory and every now and then it will flash back and make me wince.

However, I know that I suffer with this mental affliction and I know the root causes of it, which for me is half the fight won. Because of this knowledge, I am able me to look back at those events and understand why I failed.

The ability to deal with and understand failure is important because whenever you try to do something new, the first battle is always with yourself. In life most people are their own greatest obstacles.

Retrospection is an incredibly powerful and yet often under used tool, especially in management. A key element of such analysis is honesty and for this reason it is ineffective in a company setting unless there is a culture which embraces failure. Without such a culture people will hide failure, they will spin it and the truth will often be buried.

Unfortunately, failure is often seen as a bad thing even though failure is the normal result of trying to do something which is genuinely new. Whilst common and well defined activities, such as the phones working when your company moves offices, will only fail due to incompetence, building the world's first of something should be expected to fail despite best efforts.

Excluding managerial incompetence, how well a company embraces and adapts to failure is a sign of how innovative a company is. A willingness to accept failure requires extraordinary strength of character whether in an individual or an organisation. This is sadly lacking in many organisations as they often parade misunderstood concepts of success and openly frown upon the concept of failure. Anecdotally it would appear that the result is almost always the same - the stifling, suffocation and eventual death, first of innovation and then, finally, of the organisation itself.

Embracing failure is an essential ingredient for long term success. In other words :-

"If you realize that all things change, there is nothing you will try to hold on to.
If you are not afraid of dying, there is nothing you cannot achieve."

Lao Tzu

Friday, May 30, 2008

You are too old to be creative ....

In the last few weeks, on three separate occasions, I've come face to face with ageism and the concept that "only the young are creative".

The combination of starting a new career and closing in on my 40th birthday has made me more aware of how widespread and blatant ageism is. There is an often repeated meme that the older are more conservative, uncreative and less dynamic than the young. This meme is everywhere from advertising to marketing and even to job adverts. We are even told that the old just want to be seen as "Young at Heart".

Whilst it is true that the "average" 15 year old will have more creative ideas in their lifetime than the "average" 65 year old, this is simply because they have longer to live. Using the same logic you could argue that the young are more environmentally unfriendly than the old as they will travel, pollute and waste more. If you want to cut down environmental pollution from vehicles then raise the minimum driving age to 50.

Unsurprisingly the old have less time to live, on average, than the young. However, what matters here is how the rate of creativity changes with age and not how long you have got left to live.

Now in his book, "Age and Achievement", Lehman argued that the rate of creativity goes into rapid decline after the ages of 45-50 yrs. According to Lehman the peak of creative productivity varies with the tasks but in general your most creative years are in your 30s.

This is bad news for someone like myself. I feel doomed, I'm over the hill and I felt I was only just getting started - gasp!

Fortunately, in 2006, Harry R. Moody's book "Aging" pointed out that Lehman's treatment of longevity was rather creative and suffers a fundamental flaw which creates the distortion.

If you're going to look at the changing rate of creation for people over time, then simply following a group of scientists and looking at the number of papers they publish will always give you a decline over time i.e. your sample group of 500 scientists might publish 500 papers in total at age 25 but less than 250 papers at age 65. You might argue that the reason for this is due to a decline in creativity but that ignores the simple fact that most people tend to die as they get older whilst others retire. So it's a good idea to actually adjust results for the number of your sample group which are still living and active in the field.

Further reading reveals much more intelligently balanced investigations including :-
  • W.Dennis' 1966 study on "creative productivity between the ages of 20 and 80 years" shows that creators in their 60's and 70's will often generate new ideas at a rate exceeding those of the same creators in their 20's.
  • Simonton's 1988 study of "Age and outstanding achievement" shows that the average rate of output of a creator in their 70's is roughly 50% of the maximum peak found in their 30's and 40's.
So whilst I might be halfway through my creative peak, it looks as though it will take another 30 years for me to collapse back into the uncreative pit of my 20's. Whoot!

These are, of course, just average statistics and say nothing about the individual. Creativity never stops and as Moody points out, the chemist Chevreul took up the study of Gerontology in his 90s and published his first paper at 102.

Looks like old dogs can learn new tricks after all.

N.B. Before someone says that the software industry is a hotbed of creative young talent, the link between youth and software creativity is highly contentious. Our industry would appear to not only have what Tim Berners Lee called a 'stupid' male geek culture but one that also idolises youth.

N.B. As a final note, I would NOT be surprised if the mere existence of ageism does affect performance. The following study reports to show that "being put in a low-power role may impair a person’s basic cognitive functioning and thus, their ability to get ahead". Hence a lack of social mobility in society may well be self-reinforcing. I am curious as to whether a consequence of the act of ageism in society is in self-reinforcement through impairment of an affected person's performance.

-- Added 20th August 2013

Saturday, May 24, 2008

The Red Queen Hypothesis ... Part II

Organisations contain a mass of different activities and a network of people performing those activities.

If you take away both the activities and the people, you are left with what an organisation really is, which is nothing (bar reserves of capital). Organisations only exist in the interaction between people and activities. However, people come and go and, as previously mentioned, activities are in a constant state of flux. Hence all organisations are continuously exposed to change.

No organisation can ignore such changes for long as they are not islands but instead live in a competitive environment. If an activity becomes more of a commodity and the organisation fails to respond, the result is a competitive disadvantage. Organisations must therefore continuously respond and adapt to these changes, in people and activities, in order to retain their competitive position against others.

This is the business equivalent of the Red Queen Hypothesis from Genetics. It should be remembered that there are two very different and powerful forces of change in any competitive environment:-
  1. Adaption: the need to constantly respond to changes in people and existing activities.

  2. Creative destruction: the constant destruction of the old ways of doing things by the creation of the new.
The general rule of thumb is:-

"You need to adapt in order to survive today but you also need to innovate in order to survive tomorrow."