Before giving predictions for 2012, I'd better start by reviewing last years.
Of the 51 separate component predictions made (grouped into ten categories, see below) then :-
- 1 is yet undecided
- 4 are clearly incorrect
- 46 are demonstrable
This gives a 92% rate of accuracy for individual components. I'll publish the data when I get a spare moment and have completed the next round of predictions.
However, spotting individual components and trends is the easy bit (i.e. big data will become a hot topic etc). Combining it all together into a coherent story is the real trick.
When scoring a category, every single component prediction in that category must be accurate, timely, spot on etc for the story to be considered accurate. In other words, if a tiny part of the entire prediction for that category is wrong then the whole thing is wrong – no excuses.
I don't believe in the idea of "well I was 70% correct in my statement", it's simple binary - yes or no.
The results are as follows :-
| # | Category | Notes | Score (0-1) |
| 1 | Cloud | All ten components are demonstrably correct | 1 |
| 2 | Environment | Of three components, two are demonstrable, one has yet to complete but can be considered likely to fail. | 0 |
| 3 | Economy | Of nine components, eight are demonstrable but one is clearly wrong (i.e. the FTSE did not drop below 3,000). | 0 |
| 4 | Society | All four components were demonstrably correct | 1 |
| 5 | Technology Business | Of seven components, two are not demonstrable (i.e. VMWare will increasingly act as two operational divisions and CPTN holdings will turn out to be a patent troll) | 0 |
| 6 | Media Technology | Of seven components, one was clearly wrong (i.e. government regulation to introduce censorship based services designed to "protect the most vulnerable") | 0 |
| 7 | Manufacturing Business | The one component prediction specified is demonstrable | 1 |
| 8 | Words to watch for | All five component predictions are demonstrable | 1 |
| 9 | Social Mobility | Both component predictions are demonstrable | 1 |
| 10 | MISOG's | All three component predictions are demonstrable | 1 |
Overall this gives 60% accuracy but since the goal was to increase specificity to achieve a target of 50% accuracy then I can conclude that I overshot the prediction target and 2012's predictions will have to become even more demanding and more specific.
Hence the result is close but no cigar
For reference, the list of component predictions were:-
| # | Category | Component Prediction for 2011 |
| 1 | Cloud | Conventional wisdom within the popular press shifts towards seeing open source architectures dominating the cloud computing space |
| 2 | Cloud | Cost efficiency arguments around cloud computing will increasingly be replaced with customer innovation stories |
| 3 | Cloud | the adoption rates of cloud computing will outstrip many early analyst predictions |
| 4 | Cloud | Pundits will cite AWS as exceeding $1 billion in revenue |
| 5 | Cloud | Enterprise IT will increasingly focus on new value creation, architecture and vendor management techniques |
| 6 | Cloud | Increasing mention of terms like supply chain management and new business models based upon outcome |
| 7 | Cloud | Platform as a service (PaaS) will overtake Infrastructure as a service (IaaS) as the main buzz of cloud computing |
| 8 | Cloud | There will also be no let up in the pace of mergers and acquisitions in this industry |
| 9 | Cloud | Governments will also increasingly become engaged in discussing regulation of the cloud |
| 10 | Cloud | Some official will be talking up the idea of licensed cloud operators |
| 11 | Environment | Total Arctic Ice volume will decline to the lowest level on record |
| 12 | Environment | The melting season is considered to have extended by several weeks |
| 13 | Environment | The UK will suffer another cold winter. |
| 14 | Economy | Inflation, as measured by RPI, will continue to rise. |
| 15 | Economy | Because of instabilities in the recovery the MPC will hold interest rates low |
| 16 | Economy | BoE will implement a last gasp round of quantitative easing |
| 17 | Economy | London will experience a property bubble for high value residential property |
| 18 | Economy | The overall housing market, according to the Halifax House Price Index, will suffer a fall in prices |
| 19 | Economy | UK will fall back into recession |
| 20 | Economy | Instabilities will be driven by overexposure of banks to instruments based on sovereign debt |
| 21 | Economy | There will be increasing market attacks on sovereign debt and a drop in consumer confidence |
| 22 | Economy | The FTSE 100 will drop below 3,000 during the year. |
| 23 | Society | We will see increasing civil disobedience in many countries. |
| 24 | Society | UK will experience increasing protests and strike action |
| 25 | Society | Despite the necessity to reduce debt, the coalition (in particular the Liberal Party) will continue to wain in popularity polls |
| 26 | Society | Despite pundits predicting collapse of the coalition, it will muddle through. |
| 27 | Technology Business | VMWare will increasingly act as two operational divisions - one focused on infrastructure, the other on platform. Some public pundits will start to question whether one of the units will be sold. |
| 28 | Technology Business | CPTN holdings will turn out to be a patent troll, its target is not Android or FOSS specifically but Cloud in general. |
| 29 | Technology Business | We should see examples of companies trading on variability in cloud infrastructure prices through the provision of true brokerage services | 30 | Technology Business | The volume of tablet sales will sky rocket with new competitors flooding into the market |
| 31 | Technology Business | Existing industry will see a decline of traditional laptops |
| 32 | Technology Business | The concept of social searching will become increasingly important with a continuation of the plethora of start-ups providing new ways of ranking, mining and determining social reputation |
| 33 | Technology Business | Pundits discounting the future of Google will get a rude awakening |
| 34 | Media Technology | In the UK, there will be further high profiled efforts to carve up the Internet. |
| 35 | Media Technology | The use of government regulation to introduce censorship based services designed to "protect the most vulnerable" |
| 36 | Media Technology | Paywalls will continue to be the rage |
| 37 | Media Technology | Largest effect will come through the proliferation of devices with on-chip DRM |
| 38 | Media Technology | Media pundits will raise the question whether these devices and the introduction of two tier environments means the Internet can be effectively controlled for the average consumer |
| 39 | Media Technology | Online video will continue to grow exponentially |
| 40 | Media Technology | YouTube becoming increasingly seen as the future distribution channel of media |
| 41 | Manufacturing Business | Printed electronics will have a robust year in the popular press, with pundits talking up the potential for this technology especially when combined with 3D printing |
| 42 | Words to watch for: | Consumerization |
| 43 | Words to watch for: | Shadow IT |
| 44 | Words to watch for: | Ecosystem |
| 45 | Words to watch for: | Cloud computing will still cause confusion |
| 46 | Words to watch for: | There will be a continuation of marketing efforts to distinguish between enterprise and public cloud |
| 47 | Social Mobility | Increases in tax and a crackdown on tax avoidance |
| 48 | Social Mobility | No mass exodus of wealth from the UK. |
| 49 | MISOG's | There will be a considerable amount of grumbling over the Royal Wedding and how much coverage it's getting. |
| 50 | MISOG's | Unfortunately no private company will step upto the plate and offer to pay the bill |
| 51 | MISOG's | Someone, somewhere will write an article about how the cost of giving everyone an extra days holiday could stall the UK recovery |
