Monday, June 02, 2008

You have the Grim ...

Today, I received a very kind email regarding my talks on innovation and my ability to predict future trends. Whilst I'm flattered, alas I'm neither a Gypsy Rose nor a Professor Trelawney.

As I've said before, rather than making genuine predictions I just repeat what is already happening with some added vagueness: "That ball you threw into the air, I predict it will land somewhere". Naturally, I don't make the prediction until I've seen the ball descending, just in case.

It looks like I'm not alone with that trick. Gartner's top 10 disruptive technologies for 2008-2012 consists mainly of things that are simple continuations of existing trends with added vagueness. For example, the prediction:

"Within the next five years [2013], information will be presented via new user interfaces such as organic light-emitting displays,digital paper and billboards, holographic and 3D imaging and smart fabric."

is barely worthy of the name because it is already happening today. Many such systems are already in product trials.

However, I did find a genuinely interesting and bold prediction that they have made :-

"By 2010, web mashups, which mix content from publicly available sources, will be the dominant model (80 percent) for the creation of new enterprise applications."

Wizardly hats off to them.

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