Monday, March 17, 2008

All quiet ....

There is so much to talk about, but alas I have a looming deadline. So instead, I'll just post an interesting graph of three different activities (in this case products).

The axes are:-
  • Ubiquity : or how common an activity is, calculated from market penetration statistics and household / business surveys.
  • Certainty : or how well an activity is understood, calculated from a ranking system that includes a relative total number of technical references cited in the British Library.

Ubiquity vs Certainty for TVs, Telephones and VCRs.
(click on image for larger size)



Now, I haven't highlighted which data set belongs to which product because it doesn't matter. They are all following the same approximation despite occurring over vastly different time ranges.

Is this an Everett's S-Curve? Not quite, I don't use time as an axis but certainty (so it does have a non-simple relationship with time).

2 comments:

Ed French said...

...interesting... Are you sure this isn't just saying that there's a switch-over in the number of references (certainty) when something hits a particular level of ubiquity?

swardley said...

Hi Ed,

What it is saying is there is a relationship between the ubiquity of an activity and the acceleration and then decline of new information produced about that activity.

Both adoption vs time and publication vs time follow S-Curves for a specific activity.

This graph simply removes the time element of adoption vs publication and expands the area of study to ubiquity vs certainty.

In itself, it is not particular special, except it reinforces the link between ubiquity and certainty (I have lots of these graphs).

The real power is when you combine this with ..... (this is my surprise for a conference later in the year).