Saturday, August 28, 2010

The bets ...

Every now and then I make bets about the future, a gamble on the actions of individual players.  I thought I'd write down some of the outstanding bets I have, obviously leaving out the counterparty & how much it is for (which is normally a cup of tea or a pint of beer). Naturally these are fairly reckless [I like to gamble].

[2006] : The Open Source Bet.
By the end of 2015, it will be accepted wisdom that open source provides the only viable mechanism of creating competitive markets in the utility computing world. It will dominate this space and be considered the norm.

[2006] : The JS Bet.
By the end of 2015, JavaScript will be seen as a rapidly growing enterprise language for developing entire applications, both client and server side.

[2007] : The Broker Bet.
By the end of 2013, we will see adverts for computer resource brokers.
[LOST - alas it looks like it will be end of 2014 / 2015. Close but no cigar, a fail is a fail.]

[2008] : The Three Step Bet.
By the end of 2013, Oracle would have bought Sun in order to get into the cloud space, RedHat would have bought Novell and Microsoft will have bought Canonical.
[LOST - Oracle did buy Sun but RedHat waivered on Novell and without which the triggers for MSFT / Canonical were less likely to happen.]

[2009] : The Escape Button Bet.
By the end of 2014, VMWare will have divided into two companies, one focused on existing virtualisation technology (IaaS Group) and the other focused on PaaS technology. The IaaS group will have been sold off to another company.

[2010] : The Rackspace Bet.
By Aug 2013, Rackspace will be providing EC2/S3 APIs alongside its own.
[LOST to +James Watters. James argued the team at Rackspace were culturally against such adoption]

Added Friday 25th March 2011
Rather than creating new lists, I thought I'd extend this list.

[2011] : The Apple Bet (@GeorgeReese & @mthiele10)
By the end of 2017, Apple will have or will be in the process of filing for protection under chapter 11 of the U.S. bankruptcy code.

Added Friday 30th July 2012
[2012] : The Public Public bet (@lmacvittie)
By the end of 2016 the common view (as in held more often than alternatives) will be that the future is hybrid as in public / public and that private cloud will be seen as niche.

[2012] The Inertia bet (@jeffsussna)
By mid 2014, a competitive market based around an open source technology which contains at least four IaaS providers (each with >100K servers) that have initiated a price war with AMZN will exist or by 2020 IBM, HP and Dell's server infrastructure business will be in severe decline verging on collapse (unless they have previously exited those businesses).

Added Friday 6th August 2012
[2012] The Modified VMWare Bet (@botchagalupe)
By the end of Feb 2014, VMWare will have :-
1) Acquired Basho or an equivalent company providing distributed storage capabilities to Riak CS
2) Launched an open source IaaS offering.
[LOST to +John Willis. Well VMWare did acquire Virsto and has adopted a closer relationship to OpenStack providing support for it but ... a fail is a fail.]

Added Monday 15th October 2012
[2012] The Amazon Two Factor Market Bet (@jeffsussna)
If GCE (Google Compute Engine) launches at scale with success then by end of 2015 Amazon's AWS consoles will have extended to enable you to control your GCE environment.

Added Friday 19th July 2013
[2013] The Dead Duck Bet (@cloudbzz, @EdLeafe, @kylemacdonald)
By end of July 2016, either OpenStack will be flourishing through provision of a massive market of AWS clones or the project and its differentiate from Amazon strategy will be widely seen as a dead duck. 

For clarification:-
1. AWS clone does not mean that all AWS services are provided but instead the market is focused solely on providing as many AWS compatible services as possible. The differentiation strategy will have been abandoned or the project will fail.

2. The counter bet is that OpenStack won't be a dead duck nor will there be a massive market of AWS clones built on OpenStack. In this circumstance, the differentiation strategy of OpenStack will be seen as successful.

Added Monday 9th September 2013
[2013] The Highly Aggressive Smart Phone and Tablet Collapse Bet
(@reverendted, @pwaring )
By the end of 2016, numerous press articles will have proclaimed the future death of smart phones and tablets.  By the end of 2018 both categories will be widely viewed as 'dead markets' and expected to become rapidly niche by end of 2021.

NB. The original dates were 2018, 2020 and 2025 respectfully but in this case I took a hyper aggressive stance rather than my normal reckless.

[2013] The It's Alive! Bet (@crankypotato)
By the end of 2023, research labs will have an entirely biological clock including display with no mechanical or electronic components.
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