Friday, January 06, 2012

Review of Mystic Me 4.0

Before giving predictions for 2012, I'd better start by reviewing last years.

Of the 51 separate component predictions made (grouped into ten categories, see below) then :-

  • 1 is yet undecided
  • 4 are clearly incorrect
  • 46 are demonstrable

This gives a 92% rate of accuracy for individual components. I'll publish the data when I get a spare moment and have completed the next round of predictions.

However, spotting individual components and trends is the easy bit (i.e. big data will become a hot topic etc). Combining it all together into a coherent story is the real trick.

When scoring a category, every single component prediction in that category must be accurate, timely, spot on etc for the story to be considered accurate. In other words, if a tiny part of the entire prediction for that category is wrong then the whole thing is wrong – no excuses.

I don't believe in the idea of "well I was 70% correct in my statement", it's simple binary - yes or no.

The results are as follows :-

#CategoryNotesScore (0-1)
1CloudAll ten components are demonstrably correct1
2EnvironmentOf three components, two are demonstrable, one has yet to complete but can be considered likely to fail.0
3EconomyOf nine components, eight are demonstrable but one is clearly wrong (i.e. the FTSE did not drop below 3,000).0
4SocietyAll four components were demonstrably correct1
5Technology BusinessOf seven components, two are not demonstrable (i.e. VMWare will increasingly act as two operational divisions and CPTN holdings will turn out to be a patent troll) 0
6Media TechnologyOf seven components, one was clearly wrong (i.e. government regulation to introduce censorship based services designed to "protect the most vulnerable") 0
7Manufacturing BusinessThe one component prediction specified is demonstrable1
8Words to watch forAll five component predictions are demonstrable1
9Social MobilityBoth component predictions are demonstrable1
10MISOG'sAll three component predictions are demonstrable1

Overall this gives 60% accuracy but since the goal was to increase specificity to achieve a target of 50% accuracy then I can conclude that I overshot the prediction target and 2012's predictions will have to become even more demanding and more specific.

Hence the result is close but no cigar

For reference, the list of component predictions were:-

#CategoryComponent Prediction for 2011
1CloudConventional wisdom within the popular press shifts towards seeing open source architectures dominating the cloud computing space
2CloudCost efficiency arguments around cloud computing will increasingly be replaced with customer innovation stories
3Cloudthe adoption rates of cloud computing will outstrip many early analyst predictions
4CloudPundits will cite AWS as exceeding $1 billion in revenue
5CloudEnterprise IT will increasingly focus on new value creation, architecture and vendor management techniques
6CloudIncreasing mention of terms like supply chain management and new business models based upon outcome
7CloudPlatform as a service (PaaS) will overtake Infrastructure as a service (IaaS) as the main buzz of cloud computing
8Cloud There will also be no let up in the pace of mergers and acquisitions in this industry
9CloudGovernments will also increasingly become engaged in discussing regulation of the cloud
10CloudSome official will be talking up the idea of licensed cloud operators
11EnvironmentTotal Arctic Ice volume will decline to the lowest level on record
12EnvironmentThe melting season is considered to have extended by several weeks
13EnvironmentThe UK will suffer another cold winter.
14EconomyInflation, as measured by RPI, will continue to rise.
15EconomyBecause of instabilities in the recovery the MPC will hold interest rates low
16EconomyBoE will implement a last gasp round of quantitative easing
17EconomyLondon will experience a property bubble for high value residential property
18EconomyThe overall housing market, according to the Halifax House Price Index, will suffer a fall in prices
19EconomyUK will fall back into recession
20EconomyInstabilities will be driven by overexposure of banks to instruments based on sovereign debt
21EconomyThere will be increasing market attacks on sovereign debt and a drop in consumer confidence
22EconomyThe FTSE 100 will drop below 3,000 during the year.
23SocietyWe will see increasing civil disobedience in many countries.
24SocietyUK will experience increasing protests and strike action
25SocietyDespite the necessity to reduce debt, the coalition (in particular the Liberal Party) will continue to wain in popularity polls
26SocietyDespite pundits predicting collapse of the coalition, it will muddle through.
27Technology BusinessVMWare will increasingly act as two operational divisions - one focused on infrastructure, the other on platform. Some public pundits will start to question whether one of the units will be sold.
28Technology BusinessCPTN holdings will turn out to be a patent troll, its target is not Android or FOSS specifically but Cloud in general.
29Technology BusinessWe should see examples of companies trading on variability in cloud infrastructure prices through the provision of true brokerage services
30Technology BusinessThe volume of tablet sales will sky rocket with new competitors flooding into the market
31Technology BusinessExisting industry will see a decline of traditional laptops
32Technology BusinessThe concept of social searching will become increasingly important with a continuation of the plethora of start-ups providing new ways of ranking, mining and determining social reputation
33Technology BusinessPundits discounting the future of Google will get a rude awakening
34Media TechnologyIn the UK, there will be further high profiled efforts to carve up the Internet.
35Media TechnologyThe use of government regulation to introduce censorship based services designed to "protect the most vulnerable"
36Media TechnologyPaywalls will continue to be the rage
37Media TechnologyLargest effect will come through the proliferation of devices with on-chip DRM
38Media TechnologyMedia pundits will raise the question whether these devices and the introduction of two tier environments means the Internet can be effectively controlled for the average consumer
39Media TechnologyOnline video will continue to grow exponentially
40Media TechnologyYouTube becoming increasingly seen as the future distribution channel of media
41Manufacturing BusinessPrinted electronics will have a robust year in the popular press, with pundits talking up the potential for this technology especially when combined with 3D printing
42Words to watch for:Consumerization
43Words to watch for:Shadow IT
44Words to watch for:Ecosystem
45Words to watch for:Cloud computing will still cause confusion
46Words to watch for:There will be a continuation of marketing efforts to distinguish between enterprise and public cloud
47Social MobilityIncreases in tax and a crackdown on tax avoidance
48Social MobilityNo mass exodus of wealth from the UK.
49MISOG'sThere will be a considerable amount of grumbling over the Royal Wedding and how much coverage it's getting.
50MISOG'sUnfortunately no private company will step upto the plate and offer to pay the bill
51MISOG'sSomeone, somewhere will write an article about how the cost of giving everyone an extra days holiday could stall the UK recovery
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